FCSB 0–1 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CFR 1907 Cluj

P. Otele 76'

5/11/2024

Liga I · Championship Round - 9Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

FCSB54%

×Draw23%

CFR 1907 Cluj23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.14

FCSB

1.87

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.14

FCSB creates 64% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.47

creates per match

1.47

0.80

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

FCSB

2.47

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.47

allows per match

FCSB

0.80

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.26

-0.83scores less than expected

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

FCSB-0.83scores less

CFR 1907 Cluj-0.47scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

77%

FCSB or CFR 1907 Cluj

77%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

46%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

31%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

85%

FCSB 2+ goals

56%

FCSB 3+ goals

29%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

68%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

32%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

70%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.80 · 11 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.47 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.87

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + FCSB defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FCSB scores more

54%

level

23%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

23%

FCSB at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

R. Sava

CFR 1907 Cluj · G

8.2

Match Events

5'

Vlad Chiricheş

35'

Karlo Muhar

46'

D. Miculescu← A. Băluță

75'

Ovidiu Popescu← R. Radunović

75'

N. Antwi← F. Coman

76'

P. Otele

81'

P. Michael← D. Bîrligea

82'

D. Popa← Octavian Popescu

86'

C. Manea← P. Otele

89'

A. Abeid← C. Deac

89'

A. Fică← P. Tachtsidis

90'

A. Pandele← A. Șut

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSBCFR

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots7

0.86Expected Goals (xG)0.65

5Corners3

8Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots7

5On Target1

5Off Target2

1Blocked4

4Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

502Total Passes323

425Accurate Passes229

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2