FCSB 1–0 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CFR 1907 Cluj

F. Coman 49'

5/14/2023

Liga I · Championship Round - 8Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

FCSB54%

×Draw23%

CFR 1907 Cluj23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.09

FCSB

1.79

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.09

FCSB creates 64% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

2.35

creates per match

1.39

0.79

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

FCSB

2.35

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.39

allows per match

FCSB

0.79

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.24

-0.77scores less than expected

finishing

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

FCSB-0.77scores less

CFR 1907 Cluj-0.49scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

77%

FCSB or CFR 1907 Cluj

77%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

46%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

30%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

83%

FCSB 2+ goals

53%

FCSB 3+ goals

26%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

66%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

30%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

70%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.79 · 12 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.35 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.79

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.39 + FCSB defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FCSB scores more

54%

level

23%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

23%

FCSB at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

A. Peteleu← C. Braun

43'

C. Petrila← E. Krasniqi

45+3'

Emmanuel Yeboah

46'

Octavian Popescu← A. Cordea

49'

F. Coman↳ D. Olaru

50'

Florinel Coman

61'

D. Bîrligea← K. Muhar

61'

R. Janga← E. Yeboah

62'

A. Compagno← D. Miculescu

70'

71'

71'

85'

86'

90+2'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSBCFR

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots11

1.07Expected Goals (xG)0.64

8Corners4

15Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target0

7Off Target8

3Blocked3

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

312Total Passes319

239Accurate Passes256

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0