FCSB 0–1 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CFR 1907 Cluj

R. Janga 69'

12/15/2022

Liga I · Round 9Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FCSB55%

×Draw22%

CFR 1907 Cluj23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.20

FCSB

1.97

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.20

FCSB creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

2.63

creates per match

1.58

0.81

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

FCSB

2.63

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.58

allows per match

FCSB

0.81

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.31

-0.83scores less than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

FCSB-0.83scores less

CFR 1907 Cluj-0.58scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

77%

FCSB or CFR 1907 Cluj

78%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

45%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

32%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

86%

FCSB 2+ goals

58%

FCSB 3+ goals

31%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

70%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

34%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

71%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.81 · 10 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.31 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.63 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.97

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.58 + FCSB defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FCSB scores more

55%

level

22%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

23%

FCSB at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Andrei Burcă

46'

D. Miculescu← B. Omrani

65'

C. Malele← M. Bordeianu

65'

L. Cvek← C. Deac

66'

F. Coman← A. Cordea

69'

R. Janga

72'

Claudiu Adrian Petrila

78'

E. Rădăslăvescu← R. Oaidă

80'

Roger← E. Yeboah

80'

D. Bîrligea← C. Petrila

87'

O. Hoban← R. Janga

90+5'

Simone Scuffet

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCSBCFR

Overview

64%Possession36%

10Total Shots14

6Corners4

18Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots14

5On Target7

3Off Target4

2Blocked3

Passing

64%Possession36%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1