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FCSB vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
1/23/2022Liga ILiga I · Round 22Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FCSB53%
×Draw24%
CFR 1907 Cluj23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.76
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.07

FCSB creates 64% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

FCSB
2.34
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.33

allows per match

FCSB
0.82
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.18

finishing

FCSB-0.72scores less
CFR 1907 Cluj-0.51scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
77%
FCSB or CFR 1907 Cluj
76%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
47%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
30%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
83%
FCSB 2+ goals
52%
FCSB 3+ goals
26%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
66%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
29%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
70%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.82 · 13 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.34 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.33 + FCSB defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FCSB scores more
53%
level
24%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
23%

FCSB at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FCSB vs CFR 1907 Cluj

FCSB and CFR 1907 Cluj drew 3-3 in Liga I on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.