FCI Levadia II vs Elva — Esiliiga A 2026
FCI Levadia II have scored in 18 games running
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 119+ matches
FCI Levadia II50%
Elva29%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FCI Levadia II creates 36% more chances
Season form · 119 home / 119 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FCI Levadia II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FCI Levadia II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.55 · 119 matches
Elva away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.89 · 119 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FCI Levadia II attack 2.13 + Elva defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.01
Elva attack 1.40 + FCI Levadia II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
FCI Levadia II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "FCI Levadia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Elva score first in only 5% of matches
- FCI Levadia II have won 4 in a row
- 84% of FCI Levadia II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Both sides lean high-scoring (84% and 62% over 2.5)
- Elva win just 32% against the top half (vs 60% against the bottom)
- 22% of FCI Levadia II’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FCI Levadia II host Elva on Saturday, 1 August 2026 at 16:00. The match is part of the Esiliiga A 2026/2027 season.
Preview: FCI Levadia II host Elva
August 1, 2026: FCI Levadia II take on Elva in Esiliiga A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
FCI Levadia II host Elva at Maarjamae staadion.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.