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FC Zurich vs Lausanne — Super League 2018

FC Zurich
FC Zurich
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lausanne
Lausanne
1/31/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

FC Zurich46%
×Draw24%
Lausanne29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Zurich
1.64
Lausanne
1.25

FC Zurich creates 31% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 92 away

creates per match

FC Zurich
1.53
Lausanne
1.09

allows per match

FC Zurich
1.40
Lausanne
1.74

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par
Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

Lausanne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw
71%
FC Zurich or Lausanne
76%
Draw or Lausanne
54%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+
24%
Lausanne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals
81%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
49%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
23%
Lausanne 1+ goals
71%
Lausanne 2+ goals
36%
Lausanne 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)
61%
Lausanne (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 147 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 1.53 + Lausanne defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lausanne attack 1.09 + FC Zurich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Zurich scores more
46%
level
24%
Lausanne scores more
29%

FC Zurich at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Zurich 2–2 Lausanne

FC Zurich and Lausanne drew 2-2 in Super League on January 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.