Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern — Super League 2018

FC Zurich
FC Zurich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Luzern
FC Luzern
12/10/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FC Zurich43%
×Draw24%
FC Luzern33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Zurich
1.63
FC Luzern
1.40

FC Zurich creates 16% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

creates per match

FC Zurich
1.53
FC Luzern
1.41

allows per match

FC Zurich
1.40
FC Luzern
1.72

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par
FC Luzern+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

FC Luzern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw
67%
FC Zurich or FC Luzern
76%
Draw or FC Luzern
57%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+
22%
FC Luzern wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals
80%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
48%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
22%
FC Luzern 1+ goals
75%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
41%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)
57%
FC Luzern (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 147 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.72 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 1.53 + FC Luzern defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC Luzern attack 1.41 + FC Zurich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Zurich scores more
43%
level
24%
FC Luzern scores more
33%

FC Zurich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Zurich 1–1 FC Luzern

FC Zurich and FC Luzern drew 1-1 in Super League on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.