FC Zurich 2–4 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

FC Zurich

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

FC Basel 1893

B. Džemaili 90+3' (pen)

M. Kryeziu 32'

D. Males 60'

A. Zeqiri 57', 23'

Z. Amdouni 53'

8/28/2022

Super League · Round 6Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Zurich45%

×Draw21%

FC Basel 189334%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ZurichExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.88

FC Zurich

2.17

FC Basel 1893

1.88

FC Zurich creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.38

creates per match

1.77

1.98

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

FC Zurich

2.38

FC Basel 1893

1.77

allows per match

FC Zurich

1.98

FC Basel 1893

1.96

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

FC Zurich-0.38scores less

FC Basel 1893+0.06on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw

66%

FC Zurich or FC Basel 1893

79%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

55%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+

26%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals

89%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

64%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

36%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

85%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

56%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

57%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.98 · 8 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.96 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 2.38 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.17

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.77 + FC Zurich defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Zurich scores more

45%

level

21%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

34%

FC Zurich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

M. Kryeziu

FC Zurich · D

8.2

Match Events

23'

A. Zeqiri↳ D. Males

32'

M. Kryeziu↳ O. Selnæs

36'

Donis Avdijaj

46'

Z. Amdouni← W. Burger

53'

56'

57'

60'

62'

B. Džemaili← M. Hornschuh

63'

B. Viunnyk← W. Gnonto

63'

69'

70'

70'

75'

78'

83'

J. Augustin← D. Males

87'

F. Frei← T. Xhaka

90+3'

B. DžemailiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots14

6Corners7

11Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots14

3On Target8

4Off Target2

5Blocked4

10Inside Box10

2Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

386Total Passes306

291Accurate Passes217

75%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3