FC Zurich 1–0 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

FC Zurich

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Basel 1893

A. Marchesano 46'

11/4/2020

Super League · Round 4Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FC Zurich44%

×Draw22%

FC Basel 189334%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ZurichExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.67

FC Zurich

1.93

FC Basel 1893

1.67

FC Zurich creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

2.12

creates per match

1.50

1.84

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

FC Zurich

2.12

FC Basel 1893

1.50

allows per match

FC Zurich

1.84

FC Basel 1893

1.74

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

FC Zurich-0.39scores less

FC Basel 1893+0.03on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw

66%

FC Zurich or FC Basel 1893

78%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

56%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+

24%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals

85%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

57%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

30%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

81%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

50%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

57%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 2.12 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.93

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.50 + FC Zurich defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Zurich scores more

44%

level

22%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

34%

FC Zurich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Sobiech

FC Zurich · D

7.5

Match Events

21'

Ousmane Doumbia

21'

Jasper van der Werff

46'

A. Marchesano↳ A. Ceesay

62'

R. van Wolfswinkel← Arthur Cabral

62'

S. Campo← O. Bunjaku

73'

A. Padula← E. Zhegrova

73'

T. Tushi← J. von Moos

74'

B. Kramer← A. Ceesay

83'

W. Gnonto← A. Marchesano

90+3'

H. Kryeziu← B. Kololli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

31%Possession69%

12Total Shots13

4Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots13

4On Target2

5Off Target7

3Blocked4

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

31%Possession69%

288Total Passes642

210Accurate Passes560

73%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1