FC Zurich 3–2 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

FC Zurich

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

FC Basel 1893

10/27/2019

Super League · Round 12Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

FC Zurich42%

×Draw23%

FC Basel 189335%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ZurichExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.61

FC Zurich

1.77

FC Basel 1893

1.61

FC Zurich creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

1.81

creates per match

1.50

1.73

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

FC Zurich

1.81

FC Basel 1893

1.50

allows per match

FC Zurich

1.73

FC Basel 1893

1.74

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

FC Zurich-0.17scores less

FC Basel 1893+0.03on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw

65%

FC Zurich or FC Basel 1893

77%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

58%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+

22%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals

83%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

53%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

26%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

80%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

48%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

54%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.73 · 14 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 1.81 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.50 + FC Zurich defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Zurich scores more

42%

level

23%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

35%

FC Zurich at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff