Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Zurich vs FC Aarau — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Zurich
FC Zurich
Canc
13:00
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
1/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportanlage Heerenschürli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Zurich44%
×Draw20%
FC Aarau36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Zurich
2.20
FC Aarau
2.00

FC Zurich creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Zurich
2.07
FC Aarau
1.80

allows per match

FC Zurich
2.21
FC Aarau
2.33

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par
FC Aarau+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

FC Aarau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw
64%
FC Zurich or FC Aarau
80%
Draw or FC Aarau
56%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+
25%
FC Aarau wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals
89%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
64%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
37%
FC Aarau 1+ goals
86%
FC Aarau 2+ goals
59%
FC Aarau 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)
55%
FC Aarau (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 2.07, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

FC Aarau away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 2.07 + FC Aarau defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.20

FC Aarau attack 1.80 + FC Zurich defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Zurich scores more
44%
level
20%
FC Aarau scores more
36%

FC Zurich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Zurich face FC Aarau (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with FC Zurich hosting FC Aarau. Match starts January 16, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Zurich host FC Aarau at Sportanlage Heerenschürli.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.