FC Winterthur 1–4 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

FC Winterthur

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

FC Basel 1893

J. Ardaiz 20' (pen)

A. Zeqiri 83'

Z. Amdouni 71'

D. Males 12'

K. Adams 7'

4/30/2023

Super League · Round 31Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC Winterthur40%

×Draw23%

FC Basel 189337%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WinterthurExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.60

FC Winterthur

1.66

FC Basel 1893

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.47

creates per match

1.58

1.61

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

FC Winterthur

1.47

FC Basel 1893

1.58

allows per match

FC Winterthur

1.61

FC Basel 1893

1.84

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

FC Winterthur-0.47scores less

FC Basel 1893-0.08on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw

63%

FC Winterthur or FC Basel 1893

77%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

60%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

20%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

81%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

49%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

23%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

80%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

47%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

52%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.61 · 8 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.84 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.47 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.66

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.58 + FC Winterthur defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Winterthur scores more

40%

level

23%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

37%

FC Winterthur at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Males

FC Basel 1893 · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

Nishan Burkart

7'

K. Adams↳ M. Lang

12'

D. Males↳ Z. Amdouni

18'

Sayfallah LtaiefPenalty confirmed

20'

J. ArdaizPenalty

33'

Dan Ndoye

45+1'

Andy Diouf

46'

S. Ballet← N. Burkart

57'

Samir Ramizi

57'

Roy Gelmi

63'

R. Buess← M. Gonçalves

69'

S. Diaby← S. Ltaief

71'

A. Zeqiri← J. Augustin

71'

Z. Amdouni↳ D. Males

73'

F. Rodríguez← S. Ramizi

73'

N. Holenstein← M. Di Giusto

78'

W. Burger← A. Diouf

83'

A. Zeqiri↳ D. Males

89'

M. Akahomen← R. Calafiori

89'

E. Essiam← T. Xhaka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots16

0Corners5

17Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots16

2On Target6

3Off Target8

1Blocked2

3Inside Box9

3Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

430Total Passes526

364Accurate Passes473

85%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2