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FC Voluntari vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga I 2026

FC Voluntari
FC Voluntari
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
I. Armaș 77'
Marcelo Lopes 47'
C. Bălan 87'
7/31/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 3Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

FC Voluntari40%
×Draw28%
U Craiova 194831%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Voluntari
1.23
U Craiova 1948
1.04

FC Voluntari creates 18% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 59 away

creates per match

FC Voluntari
1.16
U Craiova 1948
1.02

allows per match

FC Voluntari
1.05
U Craiova 1948
1.31

finishing

FC Voluntari+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Voluntari ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Voluntari or draw
69%
FC Voluntari or U Craiova 1948
72%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
60%

Winning margin

FC Voluntari wins by 2+
18%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Voluntari 1+ goals
71%
FC Voluntari 2+ goals
35%
FC Voluntari 3+ goals
13%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
65%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
28%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)
57%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Voluntari at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 121 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Voluntari attack 1.16 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + FC Voluntari defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Voluntari scores more
40%
level
28%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
31%

FC Voluntari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Voluntari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
A. Raicea← J. Bauza
46'
D. Paraschiv← A. Nemec
47'
Marcelo Lopes↳ V. Raţă
54'
Hugo Vieira← S. Sidibe
58'
C. Achim← N. Roșu
59'
Hélder Tavares← L. Fülöp
74'
R. Ion← A. Ilie
77'
I. Armaș↳ Marcelo Lopes
81'
A. Vlad← Marcelo Lopes
87'
C. Bălan↳ D. Albu

Shots

4FC

Statistics

FCU
Overview
4Total Shots8
2Corners6
15Fouls12
Shots
4Total Shots8
3On Target2
1Off Target6
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls12
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Liga I: FC Voluntari 2–1 U Craiova 1948

FC Voluntari beat U Craiova 1948 2-1 in Liga I on July 31, 2021.

Goals: Marcelo Lopes (47'), I. Armaș (77'), C. Bălan (87').

The match was played at Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.