FC Voluntari 3–1 CS Universitatea Craiova

FC Voluntari

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CS Universitatea Craiova

A. Nemec 73'

Ricardinho 67'

V. Screciu 7' (OG)

Gustavo Vagenin 64'

3/18/2022

Liga I · Championship Round - 2Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

FC Voluntari34%

×Draw28%

CS Universitatea Craiova38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC VoluntariExpected goals in this matchCS Universitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.21

FC Voluntari

1.14

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 157 away

1.16

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

FC Voluntari

1.16

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

FC Voluntari

1.05

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Voluntari+0.00on par

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Voluntari ↓

CS Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Voluntari or draw

62%

FC Voluntari or CS Universitatea Craiova

72%

Draw or CS Universitatea Craiova

66%

Winning margin

FC Voluntari wins by 2+

14%

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Voluntari 1+ goals

68%

FC Voluntari 2+ goals

32%

FC Voluntari 3+ goals

11%

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

70%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

34%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)

48%

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Voluntari at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 121 matches

CS Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.11 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Voluntari attack 1.16 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + FC Voluntari defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Voluntari scores more

34%

level

28%

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

38%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

V. ScreciuOwn goal

24'

36'

38'

46'

46'

46'

Ș. Baiaram← A. Mateiu

57'

E. Koljić← J. Marković

58'

Ricardinho

64'

Gustavo Vagenin↳ A. Ivan

66'

Ovidiu Bic

67'

Ricardinho

69'

Constantin Budescu

73'

A. Nemec↳ Marcelo Lopes

79'

Victor Rîmniceanu

83'

M. Briceag← A. Vlad

85'

Hélder Tavares← A. Nemec

86'

L. Fülöp← Marcelo Lopes

88'

C. Costin← Ricardinho

89'

G. Merloi← C. Budescu

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCCS

Overview

42%Possession58%

5Total Shots17

2Corners6

11Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots17

4On Target5

1Off Target4

0Blocked8

Passing

42%Possession58%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

7Offsides1