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FC Vitebsk vs ML Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
Preview
15:00
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
10/24/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Centralnyj Stadion
Big match
48%
ML Vitebsk
model favours
25%27%48%

FC Vitebsk score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FC Vitebsk25%
×Draw27%
ML Vitebsk48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Vitebsk
0.97
ML Vitebsk
1.45

ML Vitebsk creates 49% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 24 away

creates per match

FC Vitebsk
1.20
ML Vitebsk
1.92

allows per match

FC Vitebsk
0.98
ML Vitebsk
0.75

finishing

FC Vitebsk+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vitebsk ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Vitebsk or draw
52%
FC Vitebsk or ML Vitebsk
73%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
75%

Winning margin

FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
9%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
62%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
25%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
7%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
77%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
42%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
34%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vitebsk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.98 · 112 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vitebsk attack 1.20 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Vitebsk scores more
25%
level
27%
ML Vitebsk scores more
48%

ML Vitebsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Vitebsk win just 17% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)
  • 36% of ML Vitebsk’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Vitebsk
WWDLW
Vitebsk
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Vitebsk host ML Vitebsk

October 24, 2026: FC Vitebsk take on ML Vitebsk in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Vitebsk host ML Vitebsk at Centralnyj Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.