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FC Vaduz vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
Preview
17:30
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
7/23/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundRheinpark Stadion
40%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
model favours
35%26%40%

FC Vaduz and Atlètic Club d'Escaldes have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Vaduz35%
×Draw26%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Vaduz
1.31
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Vaduz
0.80
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.33

allows per match

FC Vaduz
1.50
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.83

finishing

FC Vaduz+0.00on par
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vaduz ↓

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Vaduz or draw
60%
FC Vaduz or Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
74%
Draw or Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
65%

Winning margin

FC Vaduz wins by 2+
15%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Vaduz 1+ goals
73%
FC Vaduz 2+ goals
38%
FC Vaduz 3+ goals
14%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 1+ goals
76%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 2+ goals
41%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Vaduz (draw refunded)
47%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vaduz at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vaduz attack 0.80 + Atlètic Club d'Escaldes defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes attack 1.33 + FC Vaduz defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Vaduz scores more
35%
level
26%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes scores more
40%

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlètic Club d'Escaldes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Vaduz
WLWWW
d'Escaldes
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Vaduz face Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League returns with FC Vaduz hosting Atlètic Club d'Escaldes. Match starts July 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Vaduz host Atlètic Club d'Escaldes at Rheinpark Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.