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FC Urartu vs FC Noah — Premier League 2019

FC Urartu
FC Urartu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Noah
FC Noah
9/29/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Urartu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Urartu41%
×Draw26%
FC Noah33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Urartu
1.38
FC Noah
1.20

FC Urartu creates 15% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 105 away

creates per match

FC Urartu
1.55
FC Noah
1.39

allows per match

FC Urartu
1.01
FC Noah
1.20

finishing

FC Urartu+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Urartu ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Urartu or draw
67%
FC Urartu or FC Noah
74%
Draw or FC Noah
59%

Winning margin

FC Urartu wins by 2+
19%
FC Noah wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Urartu 1+ goals
75%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
40%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
16%
FC Noah 1+ goals
70%
FC Noah 2+ goals
34%
FC Noah 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Urartu (draw refunded)
56%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Urartu at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Urartu attack 1.55 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Noah attack 1.39 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Urartu scores more
41%
level
26%
FC Noah scores more
33%

FC Urartu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Urartu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Urartu 2–1 FC Noah

FC Urartu beat FC Noah 2-1 in Premier League on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Urartu Stadium in Yerevan.