FC Urartu 1–3 Ararat-Armenia: Result & Stats

FC Urartu

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Ararat-Armenia

12/9/2023

Premier League · Round 20Urartu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Urartu33%

×Draw27%

Ararat-Armenia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UrartuExpected goals in this matchArarat-Armenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.34

FC Urartu

1.18

Ararat-Armenia

1.34

Ararat-Armenia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 107 away

1.55

creates per match

1.67

1.01

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

FC Urartu

1.55

Ararat-Armenia

1.67

allows per match

FC Urartu

1.01

Ararat-Armenia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Urartu+0.00on par

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Urartu ↓

Ararat-Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Urartu or draw

60%

FC Urartu or Ararat-Armenia

73%

Draw or Ararat-Armenia

67%

Winning margin

FC Urartu wins by 2+

14%

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Urartu 1+ goals

69%

FC Urartu 2+ goals

33%

FC Urartu 3+ goals

12%

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

74%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

39%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Urartu (draw refunded)

45%

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Urartu at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

Ararat-Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Urartu attack 1.55 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ararat-Armenia attack 1.67 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Urartu scores more

33%

level

27%

Ararat-Armenia scores more

40%

Ararat-Armenia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff