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FC UFA vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2024

FC UFA
FC UFA
Preview
15:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
4/14/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 27BetBoom Arena
Big match
43%
FC UFA
model favours
43%29%28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl win just 14% against the top half (vs 41% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FC UFA43%
×Draw29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.26
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.95

FC UFA creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.75

allows per match

FC UFA
1.16
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.14

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
72%
FC UFA or Shinnik Yaroslavl
71%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
57%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
20%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
72%
FC UFA 2+ goals
36%
FC UFA 3+ goals
13%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
61%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
25%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
61%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.38 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.75 + FC UFA defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC UFA scores more
43%
level
29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
28%

FC UFA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
UFA
WLLDW
Yaroslavl
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC UFA vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Match Preview

FC UFA face Shinnik Yaroslavl on April 14, 2027 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC UFA host Shinnik Yaroslavl at BetBoom Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.