Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Tulsa vs San Antonio — USL Championship 2018

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Antonio
San Antonio
9/4/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33Hurricane Track

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

FC Tulsa39%
×Draw25%
San Antonio35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
1.44
San Antonio
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 134 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
1.45
San Antonio
1.28

allows per match

FC Tulsa
1.42
San Antonio
1.43

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

San Antonio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
65%
FC Tulsa or San Antonio
75%
Draw or San Antonio
61%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
19%
San Antonio wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
76%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
42%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
18%
San Antonio 1+ goals
74%
San Antonio 2+ goals
39%
San Antonio 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
53%
San Antonio (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

San Antonio away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + San Antonio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

San Antonio attack 1.28 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
39%
level
25%
San Antonio scores more
35%

FC Tulsa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: FC Tulsa 2–1 San Antonio

FC Tulsa beat San Antonio 2-1 in USL Championship on September 4, 2023.

The match was played at Hurricane Track in Tulsa.