FC Tulsa 1–1 Sacramento Republic: Result & Stats

FC Tulsa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sacramento Republic

4/29/2023

USL Championship · Round 9ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

FC Tulsa37%

×Draw26%

Sacramento Republic37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TulsaExpected goals in this matchSacramento Republic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

FC Tulsa

1.30

Sacramento Republic

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 132 away

1.45

creates per match

1.19

1.42

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

FC Tulsa

1.45

Sacramento Republic

1.19

allows per match

FC Tulsa

1.42

Sacramento Republic

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Sacramento Republic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Sacramento Republic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw

63%

FC Tulsa or Sacramento Republic

74%

Draw or Sacramento Republic

63%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+

16%

Sacramento Republic wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals

73%

FC Tulsa 2+ goals

37%

FC Tulsa 3+ goals

14%

Sacramento Republic 1+ goals

73%

Sacramento Republic 2+ goals

37%

Sacramento Republic 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)

50%

Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Sacramento Republic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Sacramento Republic defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sacramento Republic attack 1.19 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Tulsa scores more

37%

level

26%

Sacramento Republic scores more

37%

FC Tulsa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff