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FC Tulsa vs Rhode Island — USL Championship 2018

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
Preview
00:30
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
8/30/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageONEOK Field
39%
FC Tulsa
model favours
39%25%36%

FC Tulsa score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FC Tulsa39%
×Draw25%
Rhode Island36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
1.44
Rhode Island
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 44 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
1.45
Rhode Island
1.36

allows per match

FC Tulsa
1.42
Rhode Island
1.43

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
Rhode Island+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Rhode Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
64%
FC Tulsa or Rhode Island
75%
Draw or Rhode Island
61%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
18%
Rhode Island wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
76%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
42%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
18%
Rhode Island 1+ goals
75%
Rhode Island 2+ goals
40%
Rhode Island 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
52%
Rhode Island (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Rhode Island away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Rhode Island defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rhode Island attack 1.36 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
39%
level
25%
Rhode Island scores more
36%

FC Tulsa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 60% of Rhode Island’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tulsa
LLWLL
Island
DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Tulsa host Rhode Island

August 30, 2026: FC Tulsa take on Rhode Island in USL Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Tulsa host Rhode Island at ONEOK Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.