FC Tulsa 0–3 Orange County SC: Result & Stats

FC Tulsa

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Orange County SC

6/18/2023

USL Championship · Round 17ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

FC Tulsa40%

×Draw25%

Orange County SC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TulsaExpected goals in this matchOrange County SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.39

FC Tulsa

1.49

Orange County SC

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 138 away

1.45

creates per match

1.35

1.42

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

FC Tulsa

1.45

Orange County SC

1.35

allows per match

FC Tulsa

1.42

Orange County SC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Orange County SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Orange County SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw

65%

FC Tulsa or Orange County SC

75%

Draw or Orange County SC

60%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+

19%

Orange County SC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals

77%

FC Tulsa 2+ goals

44%

FC Tulsa 3+ goals

19%

Orange County SC 1+ goals

75%

Orange County SC 2+ goals

40%

Orange County SC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)

53%

Orange County SC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Orange County SC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Orange County SC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Orange County SC attack 1.35 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Tulsa scores more

40%

level

25%

Orange County SC scores more

35%

FC Tulsa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff