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FC Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive — USL Championship 2018

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
Preview
00:30
El Paso Locomotive
El Paso Locomotive
7/19/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageONEOK Field
Big match
40%
FC Tulsa
model favours
40%26%34%

FC Tulsa score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

FC Tulsa40%
×Draw26%
El Paso Locomotive34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
1.41
El Paso Locomotive
1.28

FC Tulsa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 115 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
1.45
El Paso Locomotive
1.14

allows per match

FC Tulsa
1.42
El Paso Locomotive
1.36

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
El Paso Locomotive+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

El Paso Locomotive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
66%
FC Tulsa or El Paso Locomotive
74%
Draw or El Paso Locomotive
60%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
19%
El Paso Locomotive wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
76%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
41%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
17%
El Paso Locomotive 1+ goals
72%
El Paso Locomotive 2+ goals
37%
El Paso Locomotive 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
54%
El Paso Locomotive (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

El Paso Locomotive away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.36 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + El Paso Locomotive defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

El Paso Locomotive attack 1.14 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
40%
level
26%
El Paso Locomotive scores more
34%

FC Tulsa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • El Paso Locomotive score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • 33% of El Paso Locomotive’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tulsa
LLWLL
Locomotive
LWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Tulsa host El Paso Locomotive

July 19, 2026: FC Tulsa take on El Paso Locomotive in USL Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Tulsa host El Paso Locomotive at ONEOK Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.