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FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
Henrique Trevisan 88'
T. Ko 42'
T. Nakagawa 12'
12/8/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 38Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

FC Tokyo46%
×Draw24%
Cerezo Osaka30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.73
Cerezo Osaka
1.35

FC Tokyo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 21 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.64
Cerezo Osaka
1.47

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.23
Cerezo Osaka
1.81

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.27scores less
Cerezo Osaka+0.01on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Cerezo Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
70%
FC Tokyo or Cerezo Osaka
76%
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
54%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
25%
Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
82%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
52%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
25%
Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
74%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
39%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
61%
Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 41 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.64 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.47 + FC Tokyo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
46%
level
24%
Cerezo Osaka scores more
30%

FC Tokyo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
Henrique TrevisanFC TokyoFC Tokyo · D
8.9

Match Events

12'
T. Nakagawa↳ R. Araki
42'
T. Ko
46'
M. Shibayama← S. Kitano
63'
K. Tawaratsumida← Diego Oliveira
63'
H. Yamada← Lucas Fernandes
64'
K. Noborizato← Capixaba
72'
K. Yamashita← T. Nakagawa
72'
K. Koizumi← K. Higashi
75'
Kota TawaratsumidaGoal cancelled
88'
Henrique Trevisan
89'
R. Yamasaki← H. Tameda
89'
S. Uejo← H. Okuno
90+2'
L. Nozawa← R. Araki
90+2'
Y. Nagatomo← K. Endo

Possession

43%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCCerezo
Overview
43%Possession57%
14Total Shots14
2.70Expected Goals (xG)2.17
5Corners6
11Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots14
7On Target4
5Off Target6
2Blocked4
10Inside Box12
4Outside Box2
Passing
43%Possession57%
400Total Passes517
313Accurate Passes439
78%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls11
2Offsides0

Match Recap: FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka

FC Tokyo beat Cerezo Osaka 3-0 in J1 League on December 8, 2024.

Goals: T. Nakagawa (12'), T. Ko (42'), Henrique Trevisan (88').

Cerezo Osaka controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.