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FC St. Pauli vs VfL Osnabrück — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
Canc
13:45
VfL Osnabrück
VfL Osnabrück
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Estadio Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC St. Pauli34%
×Draw29%
VfL Osnabrück37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC St. Pauli
1.11
VfL Osnabrück
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC St. Pauli
1.33
VfL Osnabrück
2.33

allows per match

FC St. Pauli
0.00
VfL Osnabrück
0.89

finishing

FC St. Pauli+0.00on par
VfL Osnabrück+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC St. Pauli ↓

VfL Osnabrück →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC St. Pauli or draw
63%
FC St. Pauli or VfL Osnabrück
71%
Draw or VfL Osnabrück
66%

Winning margin

FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
14%
VfL Osnabrück wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
67%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
30%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
10%
VfL Osnabrück 1+ goals
69%
VfL Osnabrück 2+ goals
33%
VfL Osnabrück 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
48%
VfL Osnabrück (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC St. Pauli at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

VfL Osnabrück away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC St. Pauli attack 1.33 + VfL Osnabrück defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

VfL Osnabrück attack 2.33 + FC St. Pauli defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC St. Pauli scores more
34%
level
29%
VfL Osnabrück scores more
37%

VfL Osnabrück at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "VfL Osnabrück will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Osnabrück — Match Preview

FC St. Pauli face VfL Osnabrück on January 12, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC St. Pauli host VfL Osnabrück at Estadio Camilo Cano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.