Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC ST. Gallen vs Servette FC — Super League 2018

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Servette FC
Servette FC
1/31/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

FC ST. Gallen50%
×Draw22%
Servette FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
1.92
Servette FC
1.40

FC ST. Gallen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
2.31
Servette FC
1.51

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.28
Servette FC
1.52

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.23scores less
Servette FC+0.02on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

Servette FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
72%
FC ST. Gallen or Servette FC
78%
Draw or Servette FC
50%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
28%
Servette FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
85%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
57%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
30%
Servette FC 1+ goals
75%
Servette FC 2+ goals
41%
Servette FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
64%
Servette FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

Servette FC away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.31 + Servette FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.92

Servette FC attack 1.51 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
50%
level
22%
Servette FC scores more
28%

FC ST. Gallen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs Servette FC

Servette FC beat FC ST. Gallen 2-0 in Super League on January 31, 2024.

The match was played at kybunpark in St. Gallen.