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FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys — Super League 2018

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
5/6/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 32Kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC ST. Gallen57%
×Draw21%
BSC Young Boys22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
2.08
BSC Young Boys
1.21

FC ST. Gallen creates 72% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
2.31
BSC Young Boys
1.15

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.28
BSC Young Boys
1.86

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.23scores less
BSC Young Boys+0.60scores more

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

BSC Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
78%
FC ST. Gallen or BSC Young Boys
79%
Draw or BSC Young Boys
43%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
34%
BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
87%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
61%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
34%
BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
70%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
34%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
72%
BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.86 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.31 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.08

BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
57%
level
21%
BSC Young Boys scores more
22%

FC ST. Gallen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys

BSC Young Boys beat FC ST. Gallen 2-0 in Super League on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Kybunpark in St. Gallen.