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FC Sochi vs Chelyabinsk — First League 2024

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
Preview
15:00
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
8/29/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Fisht Olympic Stadium
59%
FC Sochi
model favours
59%24%17%

FC Sochi win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Sochi59%
×Draw24%
Chelyabinsk17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.68
Chelyabinsk
0.76

FC Sochi creates 121% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
2.12
Chelyabinsk
0.76

allows per match

FC Sochi
0.76
Chelyabinsk
1.24

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
83%
FC Sochi or Chelyabinsk
76%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
41%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
33%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
81%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
50%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
24%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
53%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
18%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
78%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 2.12 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.68

Chelyabinsk attack 0.76 + FC Sochi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Sochi scores more
59%
level
24%
Chelyabinsk scores more
17%

FC Sochi at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Sochi and Chelyabinsk have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sochi
DLWDD
Chelyabinsk
WDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Sochi face Chelyabinsk (First League)

First League returns with FC Sochi hosting Chelyabinsk. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Sochi host Chelyabinsk at Fisht Olympic Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.