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FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys — Schweizer Cup 2019

FC Sion
FC Sionadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
2/29/2024Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · Quarter-finalsStade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Sion15%
×Draw17%
BSC Young Boys68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sion
1.15
BSC Young Boys
2.63

BSC Young Boys creates 129% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Sion
1.25
BSC Young Boys
3.77

allows per match

FC Sion
1.50
BSC Young Boys
1.05

finishing

FC Sion+0.00on par
BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

BSC Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw
32%
FC Sion or BSC Young Boys
83%
Draw or BSC Young Boys
85%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+
5%
BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals
68%
FC Sion 2+ goals
32%
FC Sion 3+ goals
11%
BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
93%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
73%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)
18%
BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 3.77, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.25 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

BSC Young Boys attack 3.77 + FC Sion defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FC Sion scores more
15%
level
17%
BSC Young Boys scores more
68%

BSC Young Boys at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schweizer Cup: FC Sion 2–1 BSC Young Boys

FC Sion beat BSC Young Boys 2-1 in Schweizer Cup on February 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Tourbillon in Sion.