FC Sion 0–2 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

FC Sion

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

BSC Young Boys

5/21/2023

Super League · Round 34Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

FC Sion32%

×Draw25%

BSC Young Boys43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SionExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.57

FC Sion

1.33

BSC Young Boys

1.57

BSC Young Boys creates 18% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 147 away

1.28

creates per match

1.73

1.41

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

FC Sion

1.28

BSC Young Boys

1.73

allows per match

FC Sion

1.41

BSC Young Boys

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sion+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw

57%

FC Sion or BSC Young Boys

75%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

68%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+

14%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals

74%

FC Sion 2+ goals

38%

FC Sion 3+ goals

15%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

79%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

46%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)

43%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.41 · 130 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.38 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.28 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

BSC Young Boys attack 1.73 + FC Sion defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Sion scores more

32%

level

25%

BSC Young Boys scores more

43%

BSC Young Boys at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff