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FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

FC Seoul
FC Seoul
Preview
05:00
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
10/17/2026K League 1K League 1 · Round 32Seoul World Cup Stadium
Big match
41%
FC Seoul
model favours
41%26%33%

Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

FC Seoul41%
×Draw26%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Seoul
1.38
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.22

FC Seoul creates 13% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 117 away

creates per match

FC Seoul
1.39
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.23

allows per match

FC Seoul
1.21
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.38

finishing

FC Seoul+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Seoul ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Seoul or draw
67%
FC Seoul or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
74%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
59%

Winning margin

FC Seoul wins by 2+
19%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Seoul 1+ goals
75%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
40%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
16%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
70%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
34%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Seoul (draw refunded)
55%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Seoul at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 154 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Seoul attack 1.39 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + FC Seoul defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Seoul scores more
41%
level
26%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
33%

FC Seoul at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Seoul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Seoul sit 1, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 11 in the table
  • 33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC fall short of their xG (2.0 vs 2.5 expected)
  • FC Seoul outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Seoul
Balanced
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Attack-heavy
51%Possession57%
80%Pass accuracy85%
11.2Shots14.2
1.21xGBiggest gap2.54
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC SeoulGimcheon Sangmu FC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
FC Seoul
3
Draws
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 60%
2–31–32–61–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Seoul
DWWWL
FC
DDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Seoul face Gimcheon Sangmu FC (K League 1)

K League 1 returns with FC Seoul hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Seoul host Gimcheon Sangmu FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.