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FC Santa Coloma vs Rapid Vienna — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

FC Santa Coloma
FC Santa Coloma
Preview
17:00
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna
7/23/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundEstadi Comunal
38%
FC Santa Coloma
model favours
38%24%37%

Rapid Vienna are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Santa Coloma38%
×Draw24%
Rapid Vienna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Santa Coloma
1.50
Rapid Vienna
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

FC Santa Coloma
1.50
Rapid Vienna
1.44

allows per match

FC Santa Coloma
1.50
Rapid Vienna
1.50

finishing

FC Santa Coloma+0.00on par
Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Santa Coloma ↓

Rapid Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Santa Coloma or draw
63%
FC Santa Coloma or Rapid Vienna
76%
Draw or Rapid Vienna
62%

Winning margin

FC Santa Coloma wins by 2+
18%
Rapid Vienna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Santa Coloma 1+ goals
78%
FC Santa Coloma 2+ goals
44%
FC Santa Coloma 3+ goals
19%
Rapid Vienna 1+ goals
77%
Rapid Vienna 2+ goals
43%
Rapid Vienna 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Santa Coloma (draw refunded)
51%
Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Santa Coloma at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Rapid Vienna away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Santa Coloma attack 1.50 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rapid Vienna attack 1.44 + FC Santa Coloma defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Santa Coloma scores more
38%
level
24%
Rapid Vienna scores more
37%

FC Santa Coloma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Santa Coloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rapid Vienna have won 3 in a row
  • 73% of Rapid Vienna’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • FC Santa Coloma and Rapid Vienna have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Coloma
WWLLL
Vienna
WWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Santa Coloma face Rapid Vienna (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League returns with FC Santa Coloma hosting Rapid Vienna. Match starts July 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Santa Coloma host Rapid Vienna at Estadi Comunal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.