FC Santa Coloma 1–0 Carroi: Result & Stats

FC Santa Coloma

FT

1 – 0

Carroi

9/29/2019

1a Divisió · Round 3Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

FC Santa Coloma64%

×Draw21%

Carroi16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Santa ColomaExpected goals in this matchCarroi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.89

FC Santa Coloma

2.04

Carroi

0.89

FC Santa Coloma creates 129% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 67 away

1.98

creates per match

0.84

0.93

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

FC Santa Coloma

1.98

Carroi

0.84

allows per match

FC Santa Coloma

0.93

Carroi

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Santa Coloma+0.00on par

Carroi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Santa Coloma ↓

Carroi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Santa Coloma or draw

84%

FC Santa Coloma or Carroi

79%

Draw or Carroi

36%

Winning margin

FC Santa Coloma wins by 2+

39%

Carroi wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Santa Coloma 1+ goals

87%

FC Santa Coloma 2+ goals

60%

FC Santa Coloma 3+ goals

33%

Carroi 1+ goals

59%

Carroi 2+ goals

22%

Carroi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FC Santa Coloma (draw refunded)

80%

Carroi (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Santa Coloma at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.93 · 89 matches

Carroi away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Santa Coloma attack 1.98 + Carroi defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.04

Carroi attack 0.84 + FC Santa Coloma defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC Santa Coloma scores more

64%

level

21%

Carroi scores more

16%

FC Santa Coloma at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Santa Coloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff