Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Ryukyu vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
3/6/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 2Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

FC Ryukyu44%
×Draw26%
Renofa Yamaguchi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ryukyu
1.45
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.16

FC Ryukyu creates 25% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 168 away

creates per match

FC Ryukyu
1.40
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

FC Ryukyu
1.33
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

FC Ryukyu+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ryukyu ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Ryukyu or draw
70%
FC Ryukyu or Renofa Yamaguchi
74%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
56%

Winning margin

FC Ryukyu wins by 2+
21%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Ryukyu 1+ goals
77%
FC Ryukyu 2+ goals
42%
FC Ryukyu 3+ goals
18%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
69%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
32%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Ryukyu (draw refunded)
59%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ryukyu at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 84 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ryukyu attack 1.40 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + FC Ryukyu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Ryukyu scores more
44%
level
26%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
30%

FC Ryukyu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Ryukyu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Ryukyu vs Renofa Yamaguchi

FC Ryukyu beat Renofa Yamaguchi 2-1 in J2 League on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium in Okinawa.