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FC Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

FC Rostov
FC Rostov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
8/12/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Rostov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

FC Rostov49%
×Draw25%
Krylya Sovetov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rostov
1.60
Krylya Sovetov
1.10

FC Rostov creates 45% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 106 away

creates per match

FC Rostov
1.41
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

FC Rostov
1.18
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

FC Rostov+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rostov ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Rostov or draw
74%
FC Rostov or Krylya Sovetov
75%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
51%

Winning margin

FC Rostov wins by 2+
25%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Rostov 1+ goals
80%
FC Rostov 2+ goals
47%
FC Rostov 3+ goals
22%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
67%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
30%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Rostov (draw refunded)
65%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rostov at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 120 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rostov attack 1.41 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + FC Rostov defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Rostov scores more
49%
level
25%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
26%

FC Rostov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Rostov 1–0 Krylya Sovetov

FC Rostov beat Krylya Sovetov 1-0 in Premier League on August 12, 2019.

The match was played at Rostov Arena in Rostov-na-Donu.