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FC Rangers vs Leopard de Douala — Elite Two 2020

FC Rangers
FC Rangers
CANC
00:00
Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
4/9/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FC Rangers47%
×Draw28%
Leopard de Douala25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rangers
1.34
Leopard de Douala
0.91

FC Rangers creates 47% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

FC Rangers
0.86
Leopard de Douala
0.64

allows per match

FC Rangers
1.18
Leopard de Douala
1.82

finishing

FC Rangers+0.00on par
Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rangers ↓

Leopard de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Rangers or draw
75%
FC Rangers or Leopard de Douala
72%
Draw or Leopard de Douala
53%

Winning margin

FC Rangers wins by 2+
22%
Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Rangers 1+ goals
74%
FC Rangers 2+ goals
39%
FC Rangers 3+ goals
15%
Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
60%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
23%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Rangers (draw refunded)
65%
Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rangers at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rangers attack 0.86 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + FC Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Rangers scores more
47%
level
28%
Leopard de Douala scores more
25%

FC Rangers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Rangers face Leopard de Douala (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with FC Rangers hosting Leopard de Douala. Match starts April 9, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.