FC Porto 1–1 Sporting CP: Result & Stats

FC Porto

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting CP

5/26/2024

Taça de Portugal · FinalEstádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Porto49%

×Draw23%

Sporting CP28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC PortoExpected goals in this matchSporting CP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.32

FC Porto

1.80

Sporting CP

1.32

FC Porto creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

2.70

creates per match

2.05

0.60

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

FC Porto

2.70

Sporting CP

2.05

allows per match

FC Porto

0.60

Sporting CP

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Sporting CP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw

72%

FC Porto or Sporting CP

77%

Draw or Sporting CP

51%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+

27%

Sporting CP wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals

83%

FC Porto 2+ goals

54%

FC Porto 3+ goals

27%

Sporting CP 1+ goals

73%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

38%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)

63%

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.70 + Sporting CP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sporting CP attack 2.05 + FC Porto defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Porto scores more

49%

level

23%

Sporting CP scores more

28%

FC Porto at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff