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FC Porto vs Sporting CP — Taça de Portugal 2018

FC Porto
FC Portoadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Toni Martínez 82'
4/21/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Semi-finalsEstádio Do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Porto49%
×Draw23%
Sporting CP28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Porto
1.80
Sporting CP
1.32

FC Porto creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Porto
2.70
Sporting CP
2.05

allows per match

FC Porto
0.60
Sporting CP
0.89

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par
Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw
72%
FC Porto or Sporting CP
77%
Draw or Sporting CP
51%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+
27%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals
83%
FC Porto 2+ goals
54%
FC Porto 3+ goals
27%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
73%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
38%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)
63%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.70 + Sporting CP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sporting CP attack 2.05 + FC Porto defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Porto scores more
49%
level
23%
Sporting CP scores more
28%

FC Porto at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
Matheus ReisSporting CPSporting CP · M
7.7

Match Events

31'
Evanilson
56'
Ricardo Esgaio← Luís Carlos
71'
M. Edwards← Pablo Sarabia
81'
Toni Martínez← Evanilson
82'
Toni Martínez↳ Pepe
83'
Toni MartínezGoal confirmed
84'
Nuno Santos← Pote
84'
João Palhinha← M. Ugarte
88'
Pedro Porro
88'
Galeno← M. Taremi
90+2'
S. Eustáquio← Fábio Vieira

Possession

43%FC

Shots

10FC

Pass accuracy

49%FC

Statistics

FCSporting
Overview
43%Possession57%
10Total Shots4
5Corners3
17Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots4
4On Target2
4Off Target1
2Blocked1
5Inside Box3
5Outside Box1
Passing
43%Possession57%
303Total Passes417
229Accurate Passes334
76%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls16
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
3Offsides3

Match Recap: FC Porto vs Sporting CP

FC Porto beat Sporting CP 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on April 21, 2022.

Goals: Toni Martínez (82').

Sporting CP controlled possession (57%) and registered 4 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Do Dragão in Porto.