FC Porto 5–0 Moreirense: Result & Stats

FC Porto

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Moreirense

1/20/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 18Estádio Do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FC Porto59%

×Draw24%

Moreirense16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC PortoExpected goals in this matchMoreirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.73

FC Porto

1.65

Moreirense

0.73

FC Porto creates 126% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

1.02

0.45

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

FC Porto

1.82

Moreirense

1.02

allows per match

FC Porto

0.45

Moreirense

1.48

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

FC Porto+0.03on par

Moreirense+0.07on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Moreirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw

84%

FC Porto or Moreirense

76%

Draw or Moreirense

41%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+

33%

Moreirense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals

81%

FC Porto 2+ goals

49%

FC Porto 3+ goals

23%

Moreirense 1+ goals

52%

Moreirense 2+ goals

17%

Moreirense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)

78%

Moreirense (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.45 · 13 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 1.82 + Moreirense defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.65

Moreirense attack 1.02 + FC Porto defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Porto scores more

59%

level

24%

Moreirense scores more

16%

FC Porto at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff