FC Porto 4–3 Moreirense: Result & Stats

FC Porto

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Moreirense

M. Marega 89', 65'

Hernâni 16'

Felipe 13'

Heriberto Tavares 90+2'

Iago Santos 45+1'

D. Texeira 8'

12/18/2018

Taça de Portugal · 8th FinalsEstádio Do Dragão (Porto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Porto59%

×Draw21%

Moreirense20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC PortoExpected goals in this matchMoreirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.12

FC Porto

2.08

Moreirense

1.12

FC Porto creates 86% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

2.70

creates per match

1.64

0.60

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

FC Porto

2.70

Moreirense

1.64

allows per match

FC Porto

0.60

Moreirense

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par

Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Moreirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw

80%

FC Porto or Moreirense

79%

Draw or Moreirense

41%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+

36%

Moreirense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals

87%

FC Porto 2+ goals

61%

FC Porto 3+ goals

34%

Moreirense 1+ goals

67%

Moreirense 2+ goals

31%

Moreirense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)

75%

Moreirense (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.70 + Moreirense defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.08

Moreirense attack 1.64 + FC Porto defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Porto scores more

59%

level

21%

Moreirense scores more

20%

FC Porto at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

12'

13'

16'

45+1'

46'

Chiquinho← Pedro Nuno

46'

R. Halliche← Neto

61'

Y. Brahimi← André Pereira

65'

M. Marega

70'

Alan Schons← M. Ndiaye

78'

Sérgio Oliveira← Danilo Pereira

89'

M. Marega

90+2'

Heriberto Tavares

FC

Moreirense

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Sérgio Conceição

12'▲Hernâni←▼Otavinho

61'▲Y. Brahimi←▼André Pereira

78'▲Sérgio Oliveira←▼Danilo Pereira

FC Porto substitutes

HernâniBrahimiOliveiraMbembaCasillasCoronaTiquinho

Manager: Ivo Vieira

46'▲Chiquinho←▼Pedro Nuno

46'▲R. Halliche←▼Neto

70'▲Alan Schons←▼M. Ndiaye

Moreirense substitutes

ChiquinhoHallicheSchonsArsénioAouacheriaAurélioMacedo