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FC Porto vs Guimaraes — Taça de Portugal 2018

FC Porto
FC Portoadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
4/17/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Semi-finalsEstádio Do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Porto49%
×Draw22%
Guimaraes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Porto
1.94
Guimaraes
1.43

FC Porto creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Porto
2.70
Guimaraes
2.25

allows per match

FC Porto
0.60
Guimaraes
1.17

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par
Guimaraes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Guimaraes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw
71%
FC Porto or Guimaraes
78%
Draw or Guimaraes
51%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+
28%
Guimaraes wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals
86%
FC Porto 2+ goals
58%
FC Porto 3+ goals
30%
Guimaraes 1+ goals
76%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
42%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)
63%
Guimaraes (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.70 + Guimaraes defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.94

Guimaraes attack 2.25 + FC Porto defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Porto scores more
49%
level
22%
Guimaraes scores more
29%

FC Porto at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Porto vs Guimaraes

FC Porto beat Guimaraes 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Do Dragão in Porto.