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FC Porto vs Estoril — Primeira Liga 2018

FC Porto
FC Porto
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Estoril
Estoril
11/3/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 10Estádio Do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

FC Porto62%
×Draw23%
Estoril16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Porto
1.80
Estoril
0.77

FC Porto creates 134% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

FC Porto
1.82
Estoril
1.08

allows per match

FC Porto
0.45
Estoril
1.78

finishing

FC Porto+0.03on par
Estoril+0.25scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Estoril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw
84%
FC Porto or Estoril
77%
Draw or Estoril
38%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+
36%
Estoril wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals
83%
FC Porto 2+ goals
54%
FC Porto 3+ goals
27%
Estoril 1+ goals
54%
Estoril 2+ goals
18%
Estoril 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)
80%
Estoril (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.45 · 13 matches

Estoril away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 1.82 + Estoril defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.80

Estoril attack 1.08 + FC Porto defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Porto scores more
62%
level
23%
Estoril scores more
16%

FC Porto at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: FC Porto 0–1 Estoril

Estoril beat FC Porto 1-0 in Primeira Liga on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Do Dragão in Porto.