FC Porto 4–0 Arouca: Result & Stats

FC Porto

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arouca

1/11/2023

Taça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio Do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Porto45%

×Draw22%

Arouca32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC PortoExpected goals in this matchArouca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.57

FC Porto

1.89

Arouca

1.57

FC Porto creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

2.70

creates per match

2.54

0.60

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

FC Porto

2.70

Arouca

2.54

allows per match

FC Porto

0.60

Arouca

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par

Arouca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Arouca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw

68%

FC Porto or Arouca

78%

Draw or Arouca

55%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+

25%

Arouca wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals

85%

FC Porto 2+ goals

56%

FC Porto 3+ goals

29%

Arouca 1+ goals

79%

Arouca 2+ goals

46%

Arouca 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)

58%

Arouca (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

Arouca away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.70 + Arouca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.89

Arouca attack 2.54 + FC Porto defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Porto scores more

45%

level

22%

Arouca scores more

32%

FC Porto at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff