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FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Premier League 2018

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
10/10/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Gazovik Stadium
50%
FC Orenburg
model favours
50%27%23%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Orenburg50%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Makhachkala23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.40
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.86

FC Orenburg creates 63% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 31 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.39
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.52

allows per match

FC Orenburg
1.20
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.42

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
77%
FC Orenburg or Dinamo Makhachkala
73%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
50%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
24%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
75%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
41%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
17%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
58%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
21%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
68%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.39 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + FC Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
50%
level
27%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
23%

FC Orenburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Style contrast — FC Orenburg play Attack-heavy, Dinamo Makhachkala Direct / counter-attacking
  • FC Orenburg fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Orenburg
Attack-heavy
Dinamo Makhachkala
Direct / counter-attacking
48%Possession44%
77%Pass accuracy68%
14.2Shots10.6
1.86xGBiggest gap0.88
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC OrenburgDinamo Makhachkala

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
FC Orenburg
1
Draws
2
Dinamo Makhachkala
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 75%
0–11–12–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orenburg
WLWLL
Makhachkala
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Orenburg face Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)

Premier League returns with FC Orenburg hosting Dinamo Makhachkala. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Orenburg host Dinamo Makhachkala at Gazovik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.