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FC Orenburg vs Akhmat — Premier League 2018

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
Preview
15:00
Akhmat
Akhmat
5/22/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Gazovik Stadium
Big match
45%
FC Orenburg
model favours
45%26%29%

FC Orenburg win just 16% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

FC Orenburg45%
×Draw26%
Akhmat29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.43
Akhmat
1.10

FC Orenburg creates 30% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 121 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.39
Akhmat
1.01

allows per match

FC Orenburg
1.20
Akhmat
1.47

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
71%
FC Orenburg or Akhmat
74%
Draw or Akhmat
55%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
22%
Akhmat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
76%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
42%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
17%
Akhmat 1+ goals
67%
Akhmat 2+ goals
30%
Akhmat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
61%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.39 + Akhmat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Akhmat attack 1.01 + FC Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
45%
level
26%
Akhmat scores more
29%

FC Orenburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — FC Orenburg play Attack-heavy, Akhmat Direct / counter-attacking
  • Akhmat outscore their xG (1.6 vs 0.5 expected)
  • FC Orenburg fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Orenburg
Attack-heavy
Akhmat
Direct / counter-attacking
48%Possession42%
77%Pass accuracy72%
14.2Shots13.4
1.86xGBiggest gap0.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC OrenburgAkhmat

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
FC Orenburg
3
Draws
4
Akhmat
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 40%
0–11–02–22–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orenburg
WLWLL
Akhmat
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Orenburg vs Akhmat — Match Preview

FC Orenburg face Akhmat on May 22, 2027 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Orenburg host Akhmat at Gazovik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.