FC Nordsjaelland 3–2 FC Midtjylland: Result & Stats

FC Nordsjaelland

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Midtjylland

S. Egeli 81' (pen)

O. Diao 66' (OG)

B. Nygren 3'

V. Byskov 87'

A. Buksa 31'

4/22/2025

Superliga · Championship Round - 5Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland51%

×Draw22%

FC Midtjylland27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NordsjaellandExpected goals in this matchFC Midtjylland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.33

FC Nordsjaelland

1.91

FC Midtjylland

1.33

FC Nordsjaelland creates 44% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

2.14

creates per match

1.44

1.22

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland

2.14

FC Midtjylland

1.44

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland

1.22

FC Midtjylland

1.68

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland-0.14scores less

FC Midtjylland+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

FC Midtjylland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw

73%

FC Nordsjaelland or FC Midtjylland

78%

Draw or FC Midtjylland

49%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

29%

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

85%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

57%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

30%

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

74%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

38%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

66%

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.22 · 21 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.68 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 2.14 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.91

FC Midtjylland attack 1.44 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

51%

level

22%

FC Midtjylland scores more

27%

FC Nordsjaelland at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Hansen

FC Nordsjaelland · G

8.2

Match Events

3'

B. Nygren↳ P. Ankersen

31'

A. Buksa↳ V. Bak Jensen

54'

Peter Ankersen

57'

Z. Sertdemir← G. Wikheim

57'

T. Salquist← K. Hansen

64'

D. Castillo← Dani Silva

64'

E. Chilufya← M. Krüger-Johnsen

66'

Ousmane Diao

66'

O. DiaoOwn goal

69'

Franculino Djú← P. Bravo

76'

A. Gabriel← J. Andersson

76'

V. Byskov← D. Osorio

80'

Ousmane Diao

80'

Ousmane Diao

81'

S. EgeliPenalty

84'

85'

87'

90+2'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

68%Possession32%

21Total Shots19

3.52Expected Goals (xG)1.73

4Corners7

5Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots19

11On Target10

7Off Target6

3Blocked3

18Inside Box9

3Outside Box10

Passing

68%Possession32%

646Total Passes301

585Accurate Passes237

91%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

8Saves8

Discipline

5Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Superliga: FC Nordsjaelland 3–2 FC Midtjylland

FC Nordsjaelland beat FC Midtjylland 3-2 in Superliga on April 22, 2025.

Goals: B. Nygren (3'), A. Buksa (31'), O. Diao (66' o.g.), S. Egeli (81' pen), V. Byskov (87').

FC Nordsjaelland controlled possession (68%) and registered 21 shots to 19.

The match was played at Right to Dream Park in Farum.

FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland — Superliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superliga: FC Nordsjaelland 3–2 FC Midtjylland