FC Nordsjaelland 0–3 Brondby: Result & Stats

FC Nordsjaelland

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Brondby

L. Vigen 89'

A. Pavlović 86'

M. Uhre 21'

4/21/2021

Superliga · Championship Round - 4Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland47%

×Draw23%

Brondby30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NordsjaellandExpected goals in this matchBrondby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.38

FC Nordsjaelland

1.79

Brondby

1.38

FC Nordsjaelland creates 30% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

2.08

creates per match

1.57

1.19

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland

2.08

Brondby

1.57

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland

1.19

Brondby

1.49

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland-0.04on par

Brondby+0.07on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

Brondby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw

70%

FC Nordsjaelland or Brondby

77%

Draw or Brondby

53%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

26%

Brondby wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

83%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

53%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

26%

Brondby 1+ goals

75%

Brondby 2+ goals

40%

Brondby 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

61%

Brondby (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.19 · 24 matches

Brondby away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.49 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 2.08 + Brondby defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.79

Brondby attack 1.57 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

47%

level

23%

Brondby scores more

30%

FC Nordsjaelland at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

S. Hedlund

Brondby · F

8.3

Match Events

21'

M. Uhre↳ S. Hedlund

69'

A. Pavlović← M. Uhre

69'

L. Vigen← Anis Slimane

71'

I. Sadiq← O. Rose-Villadsen

71'

A. Schjelderup← V. Jensen

71'

M. Frese← D. Svensson

76'

Tochi Chukwuani

81'

Ibrahim Sadiq

81'

S. Adingra← T. Chukwuani

85'

Hjörtur Hermannsson

86'

A. Pavlović↳ S. Hedlund

87'

O. Fallenius← S. Hedlund

89'

O. Antman← M. Kofod Andersen

89'

L. Vigen↳ O. Fallenius

90+2'

R. Corlu← M. Frendrup

90+2'

M. Lumb← K. Mensah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCBrondby

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots12

3Corners2

10Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target4

5Off Target5

2Blocked3

8Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

514Total Passes502

432Accurate Passes406

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3