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FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus — Superliga 2018

FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aarhus
Aarhus
M. Iloski 90+2'
11/22/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 16Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland45%
×Draw24%
Aarhus32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nordsjaelland
1.69
Aarhus
1.39

FC Nordsjaelland creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland
2.14
Aarhus
1.56

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland
1.22
Aarhus
1.24

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland-0.14scores less
Aarhus+0.14scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

Aarhus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw
68%
FC Nordsjaelland or Aarhus
76%
Draw or Aarhus
55%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+
23%
Aarhus wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals
82%
FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals
50%
FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals
24%
Aarhus 1+ goals
75%
Aarhus 2+ goals
40%
Aarhus 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)
58%
Aarhus (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.22 · 21 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 2.14 + Aarhus defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Aarhus attack 1.56 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more
45%
level
24%
Aarhus scores more
32%

FC Nordsjaelland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
L. HøgsbergFC NordsjaellandFC Nordsjaelland · D
7.9

Match Events

4'
K. Arnstad← N. Poulsen
70'
Marcus IngvartsenMissed penalty
74'
Z. Sertdemir← K. Hansen
75'
T. Mølgaard← E. Kahl
75'
J. Andersen← F. Beijmo
87'
M. Iloski← S. Egeli
87'
F. Brandhof← T. Bech
87'
M. Duelund← K. Arnstad
90+7'
Peter Ankersen
90+2'
M. Iloski

Possession

55%FC

Shots

13FC

Pass accuracy

51%FC

Statistics

FCAarhus
Overview
55%Possession45%
13Total Shots5
5Corners1
11Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots5
3On Target0
5Off Target3
5Blocked2
5Inside Box5
8Outside Box0
Passing
55%Possession45%
532Total Passes423
467Accurate Passes353
88%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus

FC Nordsjaelland beat Aarhus 1-0 in Superliga on November 22, 2024.

Goals: M. Iloski (90+2').

FC Nordsjaelland controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Right to Dream Park in Farum.