FC Nordsjaelland 2–2 Aarhus: Result & Stats

FC Nordsjaelland

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aarhus

E. Nuamah 84'

M. Hansen 82'

F. Ihler 90+4'

A. Grønbæk 39'

4/10/2022

Superliga · Relegation Round - 2Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland44%

×Draw24%

Aarhus32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NordsjaellandExpected goals in this matchAarhus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.38

FC Nordsjaelland

1.65

Aarhus

1.38

FC Nordsjaelland creates 20% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

2.08

creates per match

1.56

1.19

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland

2.08

Aarhus

1.56

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland

1.19

Aarhus

1.22

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland-0.04on par

Aarhus+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

Aarhus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw

68%

FC Nordsjaelland or Aarhus

76%

Draw or Aarhus

56%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

23%

Aarhus wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

81%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

49%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

23%

Aarhus 1+ goals

75%

Aarhus 2+ goals

40%

Aarhus 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

58%

Aarhus (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.19 · 24 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 2.08 + Aarhus defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.65

Aarhus attack 1.56 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

44%

level

24%

Aarhus scores more

32%

FC Nordsjaelland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

A. Nagalo

FC Nordsjaelland · D

7.9

Match Events

39'

A. Grønbæk↳ P. Mortensen

46'

L. Walta← M. Diomandé

48'

A. Daghim← M. Bundu

55'

Martin Frese

67'

E. Nuamah← M. Kofod Andersen

73'

F. Ihler← J. Wilshere

80'

D. Svensson← M. Frese

80'

B. Nygren← O. Antman

82'

M. Hansen↳ A. Nagalo

84'

E. Nuamah↳ O. Villadsen

86'

A. Francis← M. Hansen

87'

O. Lund← E. Kahl

87'

90+7'

90+7'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCAarhus

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots5

5Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots5

5On Target3

8Off Target1

5Blocked1

15Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

493Total Passes394

411Accurate Passes288

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1